Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Breaking Point

Those who believe that Greece will pay its debts are dreaming.  Read this.

That's what the Greek government bond yield is telling you.  At 17% vs 3% on German bonds, either Greece will pay its bonds in deflated drachmas after it's left the euro zone, or it will repay them in long-dated euro "restuctured" low-interest bonds after lenders have taken a "haircut", or it won't repay them at all.  The odds (for now) are still on the second option.  The Greek parliament is meeting as I write this. 

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