Sunday, January 4, 2026

Another leading indicator plunges

This has been a reliable leading indicator of the economy for nearly 60 years (see So, Happy Campers, a recession?)  Heavy truck sales are now almost as weak as during the Covid Crash or the 2000 recession, and clearly heading south.  


This shows the time series over just the last 4 years.  Note again the pattern which keeps on emerging---an incipient rise/levelling off at the end of 2024, and a subsequent renewed downturn in 2025.


Does this mean recession?  It's not inevitable.  But it certainly looks bad. 

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