Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Why the US economy is worse than it looks

 An intriguing piece from TLDR about why many people don't feel that the economy is going well, despite the statistics.







Some comments:

  1.  "Cheapflation", i.e., the phenomenon where the prices of cheap goods consumed by poorer people rise by more than the prices of goods consumed by the richest is new to me, and very interesting.  Its existence explains a lot.
  2. I've always though that the huge cost of health care in the USA was an implicit tax, meaning tax rates in the US aren't as low as the Right pretends.  Firms who pay for their employees' health care are in effect paying a social security tax, comparable to the explicit social security taxes which exist in other countries to pay for health, old age pensions, and unemployment benefits.  Social security taxes/company payment for health insurance drive a wedge between what it costs an employer to hire a worker and what the worker receives.  Health insurance paid by your employer is considered part of personal remuneration in the national accounts.   Health insurance excesses paid by you are considered part of your consumption expenditure.  Clearly, both are rising fast.
  3. That 40% of the cumulative rise in the CPI has been due to the rising cost of health was a surprise to me.  And the fact that 27%(!) of personal consumption goes on healthcare.  Extraordinary.  No wonder ordinary people feel dudded.  It suggests that the Democrats should push extensive health care reform.  Fat chance.
  4. The effect of the growth of healthcare on employment is also most interesting.  I would point out, though, that covid deaths and early retirements due to ill health reduced the labour force, helping reduce the unemployment rate.
  5. TLDR says that there seems to be no solution to the US Federal debt dilemma.  This is untrue.  It would be perfectly feasible to increase taxes on the rich and on companies to reduce the deficit.  Of course, what Trump and President Musk want to do is to cut payments to the poor.  Heaven forfend that the very rich should contribute more to society.
  6. As for personal debt, their analysis is spoiled by not showing the rise in personal debt per capita.  The per cent of mortgage loans which are delinquent suggests that this is less of a problem than they make out.
  7. Recent trend growth in average hourly earnings has been a princely 1.1 percent per annum.   Overall GDP per capita has risen by 1.8% per annum over the same period, which means that the share of worker remuneration in GDP continues to fall.  If you remember that this is the average, i.e., the mean, not the median, the relative decline of the poorest half of American society has been much worse.

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