The big 5 represent +- 53% of the world's economy. They are: the USA, the Euro Area (EA; i.e., the European countries which use the Euro currency), India, the UK and Japan. These are the countries/regions for which S&P Global releases "flash" (= provisional) PMI data for the current month, for both services and manufacturing. These PMI times series have a good (though not perfect) correlation with overall economic indicators such as GDP, industrial production, employment, etc.
Once again, it is services rather than manufacturing which is holding the global economy up. However, there are no signs of an economic recession, and since the interest rate cycle has peaked, from now on, growth will be accelerating, though I expect the upturn to be gradual at first. The line to look at is the green one. Note that I extreme-adjust the PMI for each sector, for each country, before I calculate the global average.
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