Monday, March 11, 2024

US employment data remain strong

There are random fluctuations in any time series, which can cloud one's perception of the current status quo.   The old "signal-to-noise" problem.  

It seems to me, though, that the change in employment is accelerating, while the change in unemployment (inverted because it is inversely related to economic activity) is still improving, despite February's jump in the unemployment rate (which, remember, is shown as a fall because it's plotted inverted).  

Overtime hours (very sensitive to the cycle) are rising, in line with the QCI (my monthly GDP proxy).  

Latest datum for each time series is February, except for the QCI which is January.

My conclusion: despite the fall in the ISM in February, the other "early indicators"  (including the PMI) all point up. 

 







No comments:

Post a Comment