At least, if you trust the official data. I know GDP data are massaged. Is China now starting to "improve" other time series too? I don't know. For what it's worth, here's what IP looks like. There are other indicators which are starting to hint at a Chinese economic recovery, such as the iron ore price and the Chinese steel price and paper pulp price, as well as a recovery in the stock market. But other indicators, such as retail sales and car sales, are weak.
My estimate is that China makes up something like 15% of the world economy, but it's hard to be sure, because official GDP data are clearly materially overstated.
No comments:
Post a Comment