US labour mkt in June still slowing

After the PMI and ISM surveys (and the regional Fed surveys), the labour market data are the first released for the previous month.   

Despite the stock market worrying that the economy is growing too fast, the labour market shows that it is cooling, slowly. Non-agricultural payrolls continue to grow, but the increase has fallen from 700 per month to just over 200.  Most people would regard that as "Goldilocks": neither too hot nor too cold.

Although the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator in most economies, its change is closer to a coinciding indicator.  Because these data come from the household labour market survey rather than the employer survey (the payrolls data come from a survey of employers) it's a bit more erratic.  Note the upward blip over the end of last year.

Other labour market data also point to a slowly weakening economy.  Overtime hours were flat in June; the household survey of employment was flat, which is interesting as it often leads payrolls. 

My conclusion:  the economy is still slowing, but it's not quite yet in recession.  My earlier views that the US was in recession were premature.  The key remains the behaviour of the services sector, which is still anomalously (and in my view, unsustainably) strong.  

In my view, the risk remains high that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds rate again.   The bond market agrees, with bond yields still rising.  Maybe that's what spooking shares?