From Melbourne's The Age newspaper.
More than 16,000 properties in Melbourne’s Southbank are at high risk of damage from sea-level rises and storm surges within 17 years as climate change exacts an alarming toll on Victoria, new research shows.
Melbourne’s west, Geelong and South Gippsland are also among the regions highly vulnerable to sea-level rises, according to the forecast, while Victoria faces property damages reaching $337 billion in present value by 2100.
The losses to wetlands would reach a further $105 billion over the same period, bringing the total to $442 billion.
The report, commissioned by the Victorian Marine and Coastal Council, includes research from Melbourne University and consulting firm Climate Risk, which shows rising sea levels and more dramatic storm surges and flooding will batter bays and coastal areas, causing extensive damage to residential and commercial properties as well as roads and environmental and agricultural assets.
The University of Melbourne research found more than 80,000 currently existing residential, commercial and industrial properties would be impacted by sea-level rise and storm surges by 2100.
It says a host of adaptation measures will be necessary, ranging from natural and human-made barriers on coastlines to “basic retreat” of homes and buildings from near the coast.
Tom Kompas, University of Melbourne environmental economics professor and lead researcher, said both his team and Climate Risk reached similar conclusions, despite using different models.
“I was alarmed, especially in terms of the losses of environmental assets,” he said.
He hoped the research would help guide authorities in determining where properties should be built in future.
“If you build a house now in the wrong area you’re going to have trouble,” he said. “There are people on the coast who already have erosion problems.”
The report used two sea-level rise models.
The University of Melbourne modelled the impact of a sea-level rise of 20 centimetres, 47 centimetres and 82 centimetres for the years 2040, 2070 and 2100, respectively. Climate Risk used a sea-level rise of 1.5 metres by 2100.
Victorian Marine and Coastal Council chair Anthony Boxshall said the research was groundbreaking because it assessed the economic impact of sea-level rise and storm surges on the environment, not just property.
He said it was important to act now because delaying would result in higher future costs.
“Ultimately, some pretty stark choices need to be made,” he said.
Boxshall said sea-level rise would threaten iconic infrastructure, including the Great Ocean Road and other suburban bayside roads.
“We need to have that conversation about do we need to move elements of the Great Ocean Road or any other roads on the coast,” he said. “What do we do with Beach Road?”
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| Source: The Age Locals Dave Sutton (left) and Phillip Heath on the remaining strip separating the surf beach from the road at Inverloch, where erosion has caused major problems.JUSTIN MCMANUS [A rock sea wall has since been built here.] |
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