First tentative signs that my longer-leading index for the US is bottoming. Given the typical --- though variable! --- lag of 24 months, that suggests a low point in the US cycle of end 2024. This may be brought forward if the Fed cuts rates aggressively, but it prolly won't because inflation is still a problem.
Remember: the lags are long. As we used to say in South Africa: the economy doesn't turn on a tickey. It takes time for monetary policy to take effect, in either direction. The reaction of the economy to the sharp rise in the Fed Funds rate over the last year is already built in to the next year. And a banking crisis will only make matters worse, although (good news!) that will discourage the Fed from raising rates any more.
But at least the index is bottoming.
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