Sunday, March 26, 2023

Big 4 PMI drops a little

 After 2 months of a small rise in the Big 4's GDP-weighted PMI, it fell back in March ("flash" estimates).  The Big 4 is the USA, Japan, Euro zone and the UK, but doesn't include China, because no "flash" estimate for China is produced.  We'll have to wait a week for final figures as well as for PMIs for China, Russia, India and Brazil.  In the meantime, the estimates for the Big 4 suggest that the Big 8 PMI will likely tick lower in March.

I should point out that the services PMIs rose in March,   I used not to follow them, but during the Covid crash, it was services which were hard hit.  Normally, the services turning points tend to follow manufacturing's, with lower cyclicality.  But so many economic indicators have become unreliable since Covid, because it affected labour markets, supply chains, and business and consumer confidence.  Interesting times.


Click on chart to see clearer image


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