The chart shows Corelogic's data (monthly) compared with the quarterly series from the ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
House prices zoomed after the RBA cut interest rates to counter the effects of the Covid Crash. The government also introduced housing stimulus programs. But interest rates have been raised, fast, since. (Lower chart) And the government stimulus has expired.
In Oz, mortgage rates are mostly variable, not fixed as they are in the USA. For most borrowers, the mortgage rate has risen from 2.2% just after the crisis to 6.2%, and monthly payments have risen accordingly. At the same time, wages are rising by much less than inflation. Real incomes are falling. A significant percentage of households are in severe mortgage stress. As households watch house prices falling, and their personal finances deteriorating, they are unlikely to be optimistic about buying property.
It's hard to see house prices rising over the next few months.
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