World GDP growth negative for Q4

 I've just updated my calculations of world GDP, to the end of  Q3, 2022.  (Some data were estimated)

As you'd expect, the world GDP and industrial production (IP) cycles are strongly correlated, shown in the first chart, where each time series has been expressed as a percentage of its moving trend.  

The chart below shows the same time series, but instead of being expressed as a percentage of trend, it shows the year-on-year percentage change.  I plotted the time series through to the end of 2019, leaving out the Covid crash and subsequent rebound, to make the relationship clearer.  Note the different scales, with IP on the left and GDP on the right.

The last chart (below) shows the month-on-month or quarter-on-quarter annualised percentage change in world IP and GDP, but only for late 2020 to 2022, again, to exclude the distortions caused by the Covid crash.  At this scale, it is clear that world IP started to fall in September, though revisions to underlying data might move that by a month or so.  

The global recession has begun.  I expect world GDP to go negative in Q4 when the data are eventually released.