Tuesday, December 20, 2022

Oz PMI falls in December

 It's provisional data based on 80-90% of the sample population, but the trend is obvious.  Since it takes many months for the economy to respond to rising interest rates, the decline is likely to continue.  A recovery in China might help mitigate the Australian recession, but with Covid deaths and illness soaring there, it's hard to be sure just how strong the probable upturn in China is likely to be.  And offsetting that there's the fact that house prices in Australia rose sharply as interest rates were cut to zero during the Covid Crash and have a long way to fall to get back to "normal".  A house price crash here in Australia seems all too likely.




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