Monday, December 5, 2022

For the first time, world plug-in sales exceed a million

N.B. log scale. 
Each tick mark on the vertical (y-) axis represents a doubling of sales,
which is happening more or less every 18 months.



From CleanTechnica

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 51% in September 2022 compared to September 2021, reaching a record 1,040,000 units. This is the first time ever the world reaches one million plugin vehicle registrations in a month. Despite the USA and Europe not reaching record months in September, China made up for it. China was also supported by a long list of other markets at record heights, with the highlights being: Australia (8,000 units), South Korea (17,000), and … Japan (13,000)!

Yep, Japan is (finally!) warming up to EVs, in no small part thanks to the success of the kei car Nissan Sakura and its Mitsubishi sibling, the eK X EV. Another interesting trend: all of the previously record-breaking markets are located in the Asia-Pacific region….

With such a strong month in September, plugins represented 17% share of the overall auto market. Full electrics (BEVs) themselves reached 13% share of the market! And these numbers could have been even larger if the overall market had not been in its newfound recovery mode. That, added to the fact that plugless hybrids (HEVs) posted their highest growth rate since last January (+14% YoY), confirms once again the significant correlation between the HEV and pure ICE (internal combustion engine) markets.

In September, the BEV growth rate (+50% YoY) was slightly smaller than that of plugin hybrids (+54%), but if we exclude China from the plugin hybrid vehicle (PHEV) tally, we discover that PHEVs would be down for the seventh month in a row. So, excluding China, where PHEVs have evolved into 30–40+ kWh battery systems (working more as extended-range electric vehicles than classic PHEVs), plugin hybrids are still struggling.

Year to date, the plugin vehicle share grew to 13% (9.3% BEV). With the plugin market now consistently reaching two-digit results in market share, one can say that EV disruption in knocking on the global automotive market’s doors. Expect the floodgates to open next year!

World car/light truck sales hover around the 70 million per annum level.   If EV/PHEV sales remain at their current seasonally adjusted level of 900,000 per month, they will make up ±15% of global car sales.  However, they are in fact growing by 65% per annum (smoothed), which means that in a year's time, EVs/PHEVs could make up 25% of global car sales.  

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