2023 likely to be hotter than 2022

2022 was a La Niña year, when global temperatures are temporarily reduced as part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).  Most meteorologists are forecasting that 2023 will not be another La Niña year, but at this stage, it doesn't look like it will be an El Niño year, when temperatures reach new records.  (See the 1998 and 2016 El Niño years in NOAA's chart below)  So, prolly, higher temperatures on average, but not extreme.

The trend over the last 50 years is a rise of 0.18 degrees C per decade.  The rise in temperatures is proportional not to the rise in emissions, but to the level of emissions.  Emissions are levelling off (sort of), thanks to Covid, recessions, and the inexorable rollout of renewables. But to reduce the decadal increase in global temperatures to, say, 0.1 degrees, we will need to halve emissions.  And then, to get close to a zero decadal rise, we will need to halve them again.  It would be nice if we halved them over the next decade and halved them again in the 2040s.  But we prolly won't, despite some partial good news.

Source: NOAA