Russia's PMI still holding up.

Russia's PMI fell at the start of its war against Ukraine, but then rebounded.  Business confidence fell, but didn't rebound.  

Putin increased pensions by 10%; imposed exchange control; and at first, the prices of its main exports, oil and gas (80% of total), rose as it shut down supply.  The problem is that the surge in oil/gas prices has plunged Europe into recession.  In the USA, the sharp jump in inflation (partly due to the rise in oil and gas prices) has led to the Fed upping the Fed Funds rate, which together will likely push the US into deep recession.  Out of the "Big 8" economies, only India has so far been holding up.  

So a world recession is likely.  As the recession deepens, fossil fuel prices will fall.  The surge in these prices has also begun an accelerated shift towards renewable energy in Europe.  Thus, short-term and long-term, Russia's export revenues will slump.  In the meantime, Western sanctions are biting ever deeper, leading to declining production, and the military call-up must also be affecting output.

I believe that the Russian economy will start to slide soon, with GDP going deeply negative.  We'll see.