Global emissions still rising

 From a Tweet by Glen Peters

The growth of total CO₂ emissions has slowed to ~0.2%/yr in the last decade:

* Fossil CO₂ emissions: up 0.6%/yr in the last decade, 1% in 2022

* LUC CO₂ emissions: down 2%/yr in the last decade

After dropping 5.2% in 2020, rebounding 5.6% in 2021, global fossil CO₂ emissions are expected to increase 1.0% [0.1-1.9%] in 2022, as the COVID recovering continues (oil up) with a superimposed energy crisis (gas down, coal up).

The 1% global growth in 2022 is unsurprising, but country dynamics:

* China -0.9%: COVID, construction slowdown

* US +1.5%: Coal to gas, aviation up

* India +6%: Coal, oil up strongly

* EU -0.8%: -10% gas, +7% coal

* Others +1.7%: International aviation

The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C, 1.7°C, 2°C is 380GtCO₂, 730GtCO₂, 1230GtCO₂, requiring net zero emissions with a linear decline in ~2040, ~2060, ~2080 assuming sufficient reductions in non-CO2 emissions.

It sounds good, doesn't it, that emissions are only growing by 0.2% per annum, or 0.6% per annum if you ignore land use change (LUC), which is hard to measure accurately.   But the decade-by-decade rise in global temperatures has a linear relationship to the level of emissions, not its rate of change.  To halve the rise in temperatures, we need to halve global emissions.  So we need to see emissions falling by some percentage each year, not rising, no matter how slowly.