Thursday, November 24, 2022

Big 4 PMI slides again in November

 S&P Global (who took over IHS Markit, and now produces the PMI surveys) releases "flash" (provisional) PMIs for just 4 of the big economies: The USA, UK, Euro Zone, and Japan.  But the correlation of the "Big 4" with the "Big 8" is (no surprise) close.  

Both series are calculated from the extreme-adjusted series for each country, weighted by PPP GDP.  The "Big 8" PMI crossed the 50% "recession line" in October, and so will likely have retreated further in November.  Note that extreme-adjustment sharply attenuates the downward spike in GDP during the Covid Crash in early 2020.  These indices are now lower than they were during the Euro crisis in 2012.




No comments:

Post a Comment