World diffusion index doesn't confirm recession

 Whereas my calculation of the Big 8 PMI will prolly cross the 50% "recession line" this month, my world diffusion index is still above 50%, though it is sliding.   The PMI data are more up to date, but the diffusion index covers far more time series.  The longer-term correlation between the two is close.  We might not in fact enter a recession until Q1 2023, though I have been forecasting it to occur in Q4 2022.  We shall see.