It's obvious that commodity prices, as measured by the CRB index, have peaked. Commodity prices follow the world growth rate, though of course there are obviously other factors, such as war, droughts or boycotts, which help nudge prices higher at times.
The chart below shows my world diffusion index, which measures the percentage of monitored times series rising. At zero, all series are falling, at 50% half are rising, and at 100% all are rising. My world diffusion index monitors up to 303 time series, covering a wide range of different activities for most countries in the world. It is not weighted by country GDP, unlike, for example, my calculation of the Big 8 PMI or industrial production.
In my judgement, world economic activity is going to continue to slow, and so world commodity prices on average will too. "On average" is a key qualification. Some commodities, such as lithium, are still rising. But oil and gas are falling, despite supply constraints, though the declines are not yet precipitous.
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