The GDP-weighted average PMI for the "Small 6" economies (Australia, Canada, Israel, Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa) continues to track the GDP-weighted average PMI for the "Big 8" economies (US, UK, Europe, Japan, China, Russia, Brazil, India). As has been amply demonstrated in the past, when the Big 8 slow, the Small 6 follow.
A recession in the Big 8 is very likely:
- US: because of high inflation and tightening monetary policies
- The UK: ditto, plus the Brexit disaster
- Europe: inflation, commodity prices, ECB raising rates, severe gas shortage
- Japan: inflation and commodity prices
- China: Covid lockdowns, property crash, plunge in confidence
- Russia: war
- Brazil: rate tightening
- India: might avoid recession, except for contagion from elsewhere
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