The GDP-weighted "flash" (= provisional) PMI for the USA, Japan, Europe and UK, fell again in July. We can't do a flash PMI for the Big 8, because flash PMIs for the other members of the Big 8 (Brazil, Russia, China and India) are not released. However, the Big 4 average PMI correlates well with the Big 8 and world PMI.
Moral of the story: world economies are continuing to slow, even before interest rates have really started to bite. 50 represents the theoretical point at which economies cross over into recession or recovery, depending on the direction the time series is moving in. We are still above 50, except for Europe, so overall the Big 4 economy is still expanding. But it's expanding more and more slowly each month.
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