Wednesday, October 6, 2021

US growth slowing a little

 This is the 'whole economy' PMI/ISM  index (I discuss the latest manufacturing sector version and the statistics involved here).   It's a 50/50 average of the extreme-adjusted manufacturing and services/non-manufacturing indices.  The line to watch pink one.  What this shows is that growth is slowing from the boom earlier this year, though, to be clear, it's still much stronger than it's been over the last 12 years.






In fact, as the chart above shows (which is just the ISM  whole economy index, and doesn't include the PMI) growth hasn't been this strong in 20 years.

The Fed cut rates to keep the economy going during the darkest days of the Covid Crash.  But, with a very strong economy, these emergency measures are no longer necessary.  The Fed might not start raising rates immediately (it prefers to be cautious and measured), but its bias towards moving back towards more normal monetary conditions is surely increasing.


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