The first chart shows the PMI for manufacturing with its extreme-adjusted version. As you can see, the extreme-adjustment algorithm thinks the decline is an anomaly, and partially adjusts for it.
The chart below shows the PMI compared with the average of three regional Fed surveys, the Philadelphia, Empire State and Kansas Fed. If anything, the Fed surveys point towards an even deeper decline.
The final chart shows the average of the extreme-adjusted manufacturing and services PMI surveys. Once again, this points to a deep recession. No surprises there.
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