A rebound in Germany in Q2

The ZEW survey in Germany provides an excellent guide to the behaviour of economic growth in Germany six months hence.  The most recent movements in this index are interesting.  It started to recover earlier this year as world economic growth began to pick up, fell sharply with the coronavirus and then more than reversed its fall in April as participants in the survey became convinced that economic growth would resume as lockdown is removed.  In the chart, the ZEW index is plotted 6 months after its actual date, to give us a six months' indication of GDP growth.  This quarter's German GDP will be sharply negative because of the lockdown.  What this indicator says is that a big rebound in Q2 is likely.  Meself, I'm not that sure the rebound will be that big, even though I'm sure GDP growth Q-on-Q in the second quarter will be positive.