Definite peak in new cases in Italy

In my previous post, I thought that new cases in Italy might have peaked.  The latest data confirm that they have.  Data and chart from John Hopkins Uni.  The JHU data are one day out of date, and I have drawn a gold diamond on the chart showing the latest data point (Friday 27th).  New cases rose 4,401 on Friday.  At its peak on the 21st March, new cases totalled 6,600. 

Key takeaway: lockdown works.  Deaths are still rising in Italy, because they lag behind new infections by two weeks.  New infections in turn lag behind total lockdown by 2 weeks.  The maths is simple: each infected person goes on to infect 2 or 3 others, unless they are at a wedding or party or church service.  This is why cases before lockdown were rising exponentially, i.e., were doubling every 2 or 3 days.  If we can cut the number of people each infected person infects to below one, the virus eventually dies out.  The lower it is below one, the quicker the die out. 

The virus is likely to return as lockdown restrictions are relaxed.  But this time we'll be ready for it, with more remote (infra-red) thermometers, more test kits, greater knowledge.  And in a year or so, one or more vaccines.

As regards other countries, it looks to me as if cases have peaked in Switzerland, *may* have peaked in Spain, but in all other countries the number of new cases is still accelerating.  In the US, insanely rapidly.  That country is paying the price for a dysfunctional government and a deeply divided polity.

Source: JHU.  Click to enlarge.
Gold diamond shows Friday's new cases