Tuesday, December 17, 2019

2019 very likely second hottest year ever

NOAA has released their estimates for the global temperature anomaly for November 2019.  Unlike other analysts, NOAA doesn't calculate that November 2019 was hotter than November 2016, an El Niño year, but it was the second hottest since 1880.  We now have 11 months of data for world temperatures, and it looks virtually inevitable that the global average temperature for 2019 will be exceeded only by 2016.  Global temperatures continue to climb.  Global CO₂ and methane emissions continue to climb.  And at Madrid, a depraved clique of denialists (Australia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil,  Russia and the USA) continue to thwart concerted global action on climate change.



Because of random fluctuations, it helps to look at a 5 year moving average of the data.  This moving average suggests that global temperatures are now rising  by 0.3 degrees C per decade, up from the post 1970 average of 0.2 degrees.  In other words, if nothing is done, and ignoring any positive feedbacks (such as methane release in the Arctic and Antarctic), global temperatures will be 3.3 degrees C above the 1970 level by 2100.  This will be catastrophic.

Source: NOAA


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