Will the EU meet its emissions targets?

Source: World Economic Forum

From Reuters:

The European Union is currently nearly on track to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, but still needs much work, the European Environment Agency said in a report published Thursday.

“Significant increase in efforts (is) needed over the next decade” to reach the 2030 goals, the Copenhagen-based agency said.

It noted that the EU is currently on track to deliver a 30% reduction by 2030 and that the bloc cut its emissions by two percent between 2017 and 2018.

The report comes as Ursula von der Leyen, the incoming president of the bloc’s executive body, the European Commission, is about to take office on Dec. 1. She has made a climate neutral Europe her top priority.

Von der Leyen has pledged to make Europe the “world’s first climate-neutral continent” and said she wants even more ambitious 2030 goals, raising the targets from 40 to 55% below 1990 levels.

The environmental agency said that 10 out of 28 member states were on track to meet their short-term 2020 goals, and only three - Portugal, Sweden and Greece - were on track for the longer-term 2030 goals.

It noted that much more had to be done on energy efficiency in buildings and homes, as well as in the transport sector. The latter is the only sector where emissions are currently increasing in the EU.

Well, talk about a contradictory press release!  In the first para, the EU is "nearly on track", in the second "significant increase in efforts is needed", in the third, the bloc will "deliver a 30% reduction by 2030".  The one certain fact is that last year the EU's emissions fell by 2%, which is still not fast enough but is way better than the US or China, where emissions rose. 

At 2% a year compound, the EU's emissions will fall by just 20% by 2030.  That rate of decline will accelerate, because only in transport are emissions rising, and the roll out of EVs will lead to plunging emissions from transport really soon (EVs are now 10% of total car sales)   To achieve a 40% cut by 2030, emissions will need to fall by 4.5% per annum compound.  Interestingly, in this report, Reuters states than emissions in sectors covered by Europe's carbon price fell by 4.1% in 2018.  Europe's carbon price has risen sharply over the last couple of years.  But the 4.1% decline is after excluding air and land transport.

Maybe, instead of setting a target years off in the future, each European country should target an annual decline in emissions of 3% or more, which will produce about a 30% decline by 2030, and a 62% decline by 2050.  Not nearly enough, but doable.

As it stands, Europe won't meet its target unless it doubles its annual declines in emissions. 

As for the rest of the world ...... emissions are still rising.  So Europe deserves a gold star even if it won't meet its targets.