Thursday, November 7, 2019

Renewables at grid parity

Source: Deutsche Bank
This chart was prepared in 2015.  Since then, solar prices have fallen 40-50%


From CarbonBrief:

A series of Financial Times features make up a “special report” on energy efficiency. One says that the price of electricity from wind and solar has reached parity with average wholesale prices in California, China and parts of Europe, with renewables expected to become cheaper in Germany, France and the UK “by the end of this year”. It says: “Improvements in the cost-efficiency of green energy supplies is having a profound effect in reshaping the mix of power supplies in many economies.” Other pieces cover the rising efficiency of white goods, “virtual batteries” in supermarkets that can help balance the grid and risks to the competitiveness of gas due to advances in renewable energy. Another FT feature asks if “economics may be the death knell” for the internal combustion engine, even though efficiency improvements for the technology are possible. A final feature in the special report describes the work of “father-and-son scientists” working to develop batteries that are faster to recharge. Meanwhile, in the lead op-ed in today’s Sun, Quentin Willson argues “we are still not ready for mass electrification” of transport due to a lack of charging points. He says plans to ban diesel cars in Bristol are a “wrong turn”.
Well, what can you expect from The Sun?

The truth is that renewables are already cheaper than fossil fuels in lots of places and will be cheaper in many other places soon.  Coal is finished.  Gas is temporarily triumphant, but as the cost declines in renewables continue, it's only a question of time before gas loses out too.  Even though I am a perennial bear, it's prolly wrong to be too pessimistic.   Cost declines in renewables and batteries will drive out fossil fuels, though perhaps not soon enough.  Problems will remain with iron and steel, cement, agriculture, air travel, sea transport and forest clearing.  But none of those is insoluble.  If we wanted to, we could cut emissions by 90% by 2050.

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