Starship progress 4x faster than re-usable F9

Starship Mk 1 under construction at Boca Chica, Texas.  Note two segments, one in foreground, one in background.
Construction of a second Starship prototype is also proceeding apace at Cocoa, Florida.
Source: Next Big Future

From Next Big Future:

If Elon Musk and SpaceX hit the targets for the Starhopper and the SpaceX Starship then SpaceX will have accelerated rocket development by about four times. This would be accelerating the rate of technological progress to ten to twenty times faster than most of their competition. This is the scary thing for competitors to SpaceX. SpaceX continues to get more ambitious with its rockets and is accelerating its rate of progress. Technology and Space enthusiasts can celebrate that this faster rate of development will mean that the world will get the space program that we have always wanted.

SpaceX reusable first stage rocket program was publicly announced in 2011. SpaceX first achieved a successful landing and recovery of a first stage in December 2015. SpaceX started Grasshopper tests on September 2012 and completed the Grasshopper tests on October, 2013. The SpaceX Falcon 9 Reusable Development Vehicle, or F9R Dev, was announced in October 2012. Tests were performed from April to August 2014. The first landing test of a first stage Falcon 9 was September 2013 on the sixth flight of a Falcon 9 and maiden launch of the v1.1 rocket version. From 2013 to 2016, sixteen test flights were conducted, six of which achieved a soft landing and recovery of the booster: 

•  Flight 20 (Orbcomm OG2 M2) safely touching down on the LZ-1 ground pad upon first attempt in December 2015; 

•  Flight 23 (CRS-8) finally achieving a stable landing at sea in the Atlantic on the drone ship, Of Course I Still Love You in April 2016 after four previous attempts ended in destruction of the booster upon impact; 

•  Flights 24 (JCSAT-14) and 25 (Thaicom 8) returning at higher speed from GTO missions at sea on a drone ship in May 2016; 

•  Flight 27 (CRS-9) returning to LZ-1 in July 2016; 

•  Flight 28 (JCSAT-16) landing on a drone ship in August 2016; 

• Since the January 2017 return to flight, SpaceX has stopped referring to landing attempts as experimental. 

Elon Musk and SpaceX mentioned the Falcon Heavy in 2005. The Falcon Heavy had a successful first flight in February 2017. There was significant work, redesign and ground testing from 2008 through 2016.

The SpaceX Starhopper prototype should begin tests this week. The orbital Starship prototype already has begun major pieces of the body. The choice of stainless steel construction has increased the speed of construction and testing. The orbital Starship prototype should have its first test in the second half of 2019. 

Getting a new rocket to orbit and back within 9 months of the beginning of testing would be four times faster than starting with the Grasshopper and reaching an unsuccessful orbital launch and landing attempt. If SpaceX could get from the start of development to a fully successful orbital rocket and reusable landing in two years would be about six times faster than the Falcon Heavy and twice as fast as that start of the reuse of the Falcon 9 first stage. If SpaceX could reach this rate of progress, they could go through two or even three major iterations of the Super Heavy Starship by 2030. There will likely be minor design upgrades every year.

It's logical—SpaceX has learned a lot, and it's a larger company these days than it was in 2011.  Apart from Crew Dragon, SpaceX is now devoting all of its much larger resources to Starship.  So progress should be rapid.

Of course, some things will go wrong.  For example, I'm still not convinced that a monocoque construction will be strong enough, although it will be lighter than having a frame (internal girders) as well.  Starship and Super Heavy may yet require internal girders for strengthening, at what cost to load I know not.  The girders need not be made of steel, though—they won't be exposed to the heat of re-entry.

The timetable will probly slip.  As it stands, though, the timetable looks something like this:

1. Late 2019/early 2020:   First orbital flights of the Starship (BFS, i.e., the spaceship upper stage)
2. End 2020: Full stack (i.e., Super Heavy booster plus Starship) operational
3. Early 2021: First commercial customers (for satellites), launches of Starlink constellation
4. Late 2022: Uncrewed mission to Mars (Mars is in opposition in December)
5. 2023??: First commercial space station.  Launched on Starship, built by non-SpaceX companies—or maybe even by SpaceX
6. 2023: 'Dear Moon' circumlunar expedition
7. 2024??: Moon Base Alpha
8. Late 2024: Crewed mission to Mars
9. Early 2027: Second expedition to Mars.  Return of at least one Starship.
10. 2029: Third expedition to Mars.  Martian population reaches 300.  (If Starship works, SpaceX will start designing even bigger rockets, capable of carrying more than 100 passengers, so Mars's population in 2029 could be more.)  Return of some Starships.

A Martian township in 10 years?  Looks plausible.  But even if the timetable slips 2 years, that still means boots on Mars by 2026.  

How many Starships and Super Heavys will  SpaceX need to build?  Six Starships (BFSs) for the first two Mars expeditions—and some might not be coming back, though later Starships will.  Perhaps two for Moon shuttles.  Two for satellite launches/space station construction.  10 Starships altogether.  Plus two or three Super Heavys to service them.  Musk has said that the Starships and Super Heavys could cost less than a Falcon 9 ($62 million).  Let's say $100 million each.  That's a total of $1.3 billion.  For 13 re-usable spaceships.   SLS will cost $1.5 to $2.5 billion for a single launch.  Just saying.   And SpaceX could fund it all itself, with the profits from  Starlink.

If Starship is truly re-usable, even just ten times, the cost of a journey to Mars will be  $100,000; if twenty times, $50,000 plus fuel costs (low, because using methane not RPG).  And if the Starships can get to Mars and leave again within that narrow window when Mars and Earth are in opposition, say by having a complete turnaround in 2 weeks on the surface of Mars, apart from the first few they will be re-usable as many as 100 times.  Which means that a ticket to Mars will cost $20K for you plus roughly 1 tonne of baggage.  The advent of truly cheap space travel.