Next generation solar cells

Over the last 40 years, the cost of solar cells has dropped more than 99%.  It looks as though the declines will continue:

(via RenewEconomy)

As solar PV continues to smash records for rates of installation and low-cost new power generation around the world, it’s easy to forget that there are still teams of researchers working tirelessly to make the technology even cheaper and more efficient.

Leading the global pack – as it has for decades now – is Australia’s University of New South Wales, which has just quietly announced a rather big deal with a Chinese specialist PV manufacturer to fast-track the mass production of “next generation” PERC solar cells.

PERC – itself a product of the UNSW in the late 80s – stands for Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell, and is basically a more advanced cell architecture that uses additional layer/s on the rear side to improve ‘quantum efficiency’ – i.e. more of the photons which pass through the cell are able to be absorbed.

As UNSW Associate Professor Bram Hoex explains it, the major advantage of the PERC solar cell compared to the incumbent technology is the use of ultrathin films, which reduce electronic losses at the rear of the solar cell.

And it is tipped to be the next big thing in solar PV – and help bring costs of generation as low as 1c/kWh.  PERC solar cells are expected to hit the mainstream by 2020, and dominate the market by 2022.  Currently PERC cells have a potential conversion rate of sunlight into electricity of more than 25 per cent compared to 20 per cent for most traditional solar cell technology.

“Solar PV is already the lowest-cost way to make electricity at the moment,” Hoex said. “And we are confident we can – in the medium-term – make it cheaper again by a factor of two.

“We’re part of the consolidated effort by the market to (keep) bringing down costs. …Our work will continue to support the learning rate 40 per cent.

Conventional solar is already coming in at below 2 cents/kWh in favourable locations round the world.  If costs halve again, that will take solar to below 1 cent/kWh (or below $10/MWh).  For comparison, in the US the cheapest new coal costs $65/MWh, and the lowest marginal cost of existing coal is over $25/MWh.  Every piece of new information makes it abundantly clear that coal is on its way out.

Costs now:

Costs in five years (before allowing for solar panels delivering electricity a below 1 cent/kWh):