2018 is now on track to be the fourth hottest year behind 2016 (#1), 2017 (#2), and 2015 (#3). As a result, every year of the past four years represents the hottest years ever recorded since consistent measurements began more than a century ago.
According to every major climate monitoring agency, the uncontested driver of this warming trend is an ongoing and growing fossil fuel based greenhouse gas emission. During 2018, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose to an average near 410 parts per million and carbon dioxide equivalents, a measure taking into account all greenhouse gasses, hit near 495 parts per million. This level of heat trapping gasses is unprecedented for at least the past 18 million years and will result in significant continued warming if they remain or keep rising.
Looking forward, an emerging El Nino combined with these high and rising levels of heat trapping gasses has the potential to produce record global temperatures during 2019. According to NOAA, sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are presently in the El Nino range and the climate monitor is predicting a 90 percent chance of official El Nino formation during the winter of 2018 with a 60 percent chance for its continuance during spring.
El Nino is the hot end of the natural variability scale. When combined with rising atmospheric greenhouse gasses trapping more heat in the Earth system, it has tended to produce record hot or near record hot years. 2016 saw a very strong El Nino along with a major new global temperature milestone in the range of 1.21 C above 1880s averages. Though the 2019 El Nino is predicted to be milder than the 2016 event, high and rising greenhouse gasses means that a new record could be breached with temperatures likely to hit a range between 1.17 C and 1.3 C.
With present temperatures now well outside the typical range for the past 10,000 years following the last ice age, each additional 0.1 C of warming is likely to bring additional impacts on top of the more severe weather, worsening fires, rising seas, and ocean health impacts we have already seen. It is thus the case that the age of human caused climate change is upon us and that escalating climate action is needed to prevent a quick ramp to catastrophic events.
[Read more here]
I am reasonably confident that the continued cost declines in wind, solar, and batteries will make a switch to renewables so attractive in electricity generation and transport that we will start to rapidly green our economies from 2020 onwards. But the opposition of fossil fuel interests to this shift will only intensify as the powerful market forces attracting us to renewables become more obvious and harder and harder to deny. Even as the public accepts more and more that global temperatures are rising and that something must be done about it, politicians in the pay of fossil fuel will try hard to prevent real change, and the politics will only get more toxic. We must not let our guard down, not until world carbon emissions reach zero.
 |
| Source :NASA GISS |
P.S.: I know the statisticians will disagree, but it does look to me as if the rise in global temperatures is accelerating. If 2019 is a record year, that will only confirm this truly terrifying possibility.
No comments:
Post a Comment