Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

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Saturday, July 14, 2018

US EV/PHEV sales up 49%

US EV (all electric) and PHEV (plug-in hybrid electric) sales in the US rose 49% in June over June 2017.

As a percentage of total car and light truck sales, the trend in EVs/PHEVs continues to be steadily rising.

Year on year growth is high partly because 2017 was a year of slow growth in EV sales as the market waited for the new Nissan Leaf and the Tesla Model 3.  Having said that, if Tesla achieves my forecasts (production of 10,000 Model 3s per week by Mid-December 2018) total US EV sales will more than double, just from the Model 3 alone, taking EV sales to over 3.5% of all car sales.

➥ Caveat:  It's possible that having achieved 5000 Model 3s per week, Tesla might slow the growth in production, for a  couple of reasons. 

  • The additional new temporary production line at Fremont is in a tent with a limited permit from the municipality.  Building a permanent expansion to the factory will take time.  
  • And although Tesla will be profitable and cash-flow positive in Q3 and Q4, Musk may wish to fund more of Tesla's growth from internal cash flow and less from the markets.  That would mean growth in output would slow.
  • The company has been in "production hell', as Musk calls it.  Maybe they'd like to slow things down a bit.

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