US econ still strong, for now.

I thought last month that the ISM/PMI indices for the US were suggesting that growth was peaking out.  Prolly not quite yet--look at the green line in the chart below, which is the simple average of the ISM (formerly NAPM) and the PMI manufacturing sector surveys.

I still think, though, that growth will be peaking at some point quite soon.  Why?

• The Fed will keep tightening until something breaks.  The Fed funds rate is up from near zero to 1.75%.
• Bond yields are rising, spooked by the Fed's stance and Trump's tax cuts and the big deficits which will follow.  10 year bond yields have risen from 1.37% to 2.84%.
• The yield curve continues to signal a slow down (though not a recession).
• The rest of the world is slowing, and the USA is much less independent of the rest of the world than it used to be.
• trade wars.  Not good.