Thursday, July 26, 2018

Over 6,000 Model 3s per week

Or at least, so Bloomberg's Tesla Tracker forecasts.  Although their forecasts have moved around a lot over the last 3 months (partly because of Tesla's shutdowns of their assembly line for improvements) their estimate for total production in the quarter was only 2% out.

For me, the interesting question is whether Tesla will go on with this rapid rate of expansion.  Musk has admitted that this explosion in production has been hell, and the temptation must be to slow down the rate of expansion from now on.  His original chart of planned production was an S-curve,  and we're prolly more than half way through that.  And there are plenty of other Tesla initiatives which need attention: the solar roof tiles, the solar panel business, and Powerwall and Powerpack.  At 6000 Model 3s per week, Tesla is profitable, and it must be very tempting for him to try and avoid having to raise capital on the stock or bond markets.  A sustained 6000 per week will reassure the markets that Tesla will survive and flourish, and it will also generate positive cash flow and profits.


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