Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.
BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.
Saturday, June 23, 2018
Europe's growth has peaked
Back in 2010-2012, (northern) Europe's obsession with balanced budgets and fiscal rectitude led Europe back into a double dip recession. You can see this in the PMIs, which were for the most part below 50, where 50 is the dividing line between growth and recession. Recently, PMIs have started to fall. Although they're still above 50, which means these economies are still expanding, they've falling back, which means they're expanding more slowly.
If Europe growth slows substantially, the fat will be in the fire. Italy has voted in new political parties which are hostile to Europe. Then there's the UK. Slow or negative economic growth will just make everything harder, politically. And more risky for markets. And that's before we get into trade wars and the relentless tightening by the Fed.