Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Monday, March 19, 2018

Lowest winter Arctic ice extent

The chart below is very telling.

Source: Eric Holthaus
Each decade, the annual (winter) max of sea ice has fallen.  The purple line shows the average for 2010-2017,  and as you can see, 2018 is even lower.  In fact, record lows.

Why does this matter?  Well, apart from evidence that global warming is continuing decade by decade, the warming of the arctic makes severe winter storms in the NE USA 2 to 4 tim4es more likely.  This is probably because the polar vortex is weakened, though researchers still need to do more research about that. 

 “Our statistical analysis shows that one is more likely to be struck by lightning, attacked by a shark, and win the Powerball all at the same time than the possibility of severe winter weather in the northeastern US not being related to Arctic temperatures,” Cohen says.

[Read more here]

The evidence that the world is warming and that it is already having serious climate and economic consequences just keeps mounting.  It's not enough to promise zero emissions in 2050.  That's too far away.  Pious protestations of future virtue are not enough.  We must set out a year-by-year target.   For example, we should decide to make electricity generation 100% green in 20 years' time, i.e., by 2038.  To reach that target, every year 5% of generation capacity would need to be converted away from coal or gs to renewables.  To set a year-by-year target makes it more likely that we will achieve our long term target. 

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