Friday, February 23, 2018

Arctic 45°F above normal.

Source: The Washington Post



While the Eastern United States simmers in some of its warmest February weather ever recorded, the Arctic is also stewing in temperatures more than 45 degrees above normal. This latest huge temperature spike in the Arctic is another striking indicator of its rapidly transforming climate.

On Monday and Tuesday, the northernmost weather station in the world, Cape Morris Jesup at the northern tip of Greenland, experienced more than 24 hours of temperatures above freezing according to the Danish Meteorological Institute. “How weird is that?” tweeted Robert Rohde, a physicist at the University of California at Berkeley. “Well it’s Arctic winter. The sun set in October and won’t be seen again until March. Perpetual night, but still above freezing.”

This thaw occurred as a pulse of extremely mild air shot through the Greenland Sea.

Warm air is spilling into the Arctic from all sides. On the opposite end of North America, abnormally mild air also poured over northern Alaska on Tuesday, where the temperature in Utqiaġvik, previously known as Barrow, soared to a record high of 31 degrees (minus-1 Celsius), 40 degrees (22 Celsius) above normal.

[Read more here]

Thursday, February 22, 2018

The gun shop

By Clay Bennett


Very high risk of more than 1.5 degrees

5 year moving average of the global temperature anomaly
relative to to 1901 to 2000 period
Source: NOAA



A leaked U.N. climate report sees  a ‘very high risk’ that the planet will warm beyond the key limit of 1.5 degrees C.

A draft United Nations climate science report contains dire news about the warming of the planet, suggesting it will likely cross the key marker of 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, of temperature rise in the 2040s, and that this will be exceedingly difficult to avoid.

The draft document states that there is a “very high risk” of the planet warming more than 1.5 degrees above the temperature seen in the mid- to late 19th century.

Maintaining the planet’s temperature entirely below that level throughout the present century, without even briefly exceeding it, is likely to be “already out of reach,” it finds.

[Read more here]

Global temperatures are rising, on average, by about 0.2 degrees C per decade.  If we can convert all electricity generation to renewables/nuclear and if we can switch all cars and lorries to electric engines, we could slash CO2 emissions by 70%.  We would still need to find a better way to make steel and cement, we would need to power our jets with bio fuel, and we would have to stop clearing and burning forests, but we'd be well on the way to reducing emissions to zero.

I think EVs will take over from ICEVs much quicker than the consensus now holds, as I've said before.  The costs of batteries, and therefore of EVs, will fall so fast that by the mid 2020s, no more ICEVs will be sold.  That shift will be encouraged and enforced by governments trying to reduce air pollution.  But it will take the next 10 or 15 years for the whole vehicle fleet to be replaced by EVs, so even my optimistic forecasts won't get to zero transport emissions for 20 to 25 years.

New wind and solar farms are cheaper than new coal in most places in the world, and although in some locations new wind and solar now cost less than the operating costs of coal, the practicalities of replacing a whole generation fleet with renewables mean that it will also take another 20 or 25 years to get to 100% green electricity.  During that time, global temperatures will rise another 0.4 or 0.5 degrees.  Global temperatures have risen about 1 degree C from the 1800s.  So that means we will have reached the 1.5 degree increase at about the time we finally stop burning fossil fuels for energy and transport.  We will have to get to zero CO2 emissions by 2040 is we are to stop global temperatures rising more than 1.5 degrees. 

We might make it.  Might.

Renewables now 18% of US generation

The percentage of electricity generated from renewable sources (including hydro) in the USA has risen from 9% in 2008 to 18% in 2017.   Though electricity generated from renewables increased 14% in 2017, this was a larger than normal increase because rain in the west replenished empty hydro reservoirs, so generation from hydro increased 13%.  The longer term growth rate is 7% per annum.  At this rate, it will take 25 years for 100% of electricity to come from renewables. 

For me, the most striking chart from the report is this one:

Source

There have been no new coal power stations built since 2013, and the chart shows gross additions to capacity, not net.  Coal power stations have been closed.  Most new capacity is now in renewables, and the rest is in gas.  Renewables and gas go well together, because generation from gas can be dialled up or down quickly to compensate for fluctuations in the output of renewables, and in the USA, because of fracking, gas is cheap.  (Remember, that while gas generators may have capacity factors of 60% plus, the capacity factors for wind and solar are half that.)  Wind and solar are already cheaper than gas, even in the USA, where gas is cheaper than in the rest of the world.  As the cost of storage falls, gas will be replaced by renewables, just as coal has been. 

[Read more here]

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Model 3 production rate

Tesla is a critical component to the rise of the EV.  Without Tesla, it's doubtful whether any of the major car makers would have bothered with EVs.  For example, GM is selling just enough Bolts to comply with California's strict ZEV regulations.  Even China, now driving a rapid take-up of electric vehicles, was undoubtedly influenced by seeing that EVs were feasible.  Tesla made electric cars glamorous and sexy, far removed from their previous image as golf carts or milk floats.

So Tesla's survival is really important.  Tesla bet the shop on the Model 3.  If it works, Tesla will not only survive, it will prosper.  And the energy transition will get stronger and stronger.  Tesla has already announced delays in its ramp up of Model 3 production.  There has been schadenfreude in some quarters and dismay in others because of this.  Yet it looks as if the delay is merely a matter of months.  Bloomberg has come up with a mathematical model to estimate weekly Model 3 sales, using VINs and other data.

Source: Bloomberg.  Note date is peculiar US format, i.e., runs from Sept 1st to Feb 18th

Tesla's target is 2,500 per week by the end of March, and 5,000 a week by the end of June.  Those targets now look achievable.  And when they are achieved, Tesla Model 3 sales will double US EV sales this year.

Sunday, February 4, 2018

EV sales motoring

In the US, despite the reduced sales caused by the delayed introduction of the Tesla Model 3 and the new longer-range Nissan Leaf, EV/PHEV sales continue to rise, in absolute terms and as a percentage of total car sales.  With the Model 3 and the new Leaf, EV/PHEV sales in the US should more than double this year.



However, thanks to China's push to clean up its air, world EV/PHEV car sales are exploding.  Note how sales data show an exponential curve (arithmetic scale)



Plotted on a log scale, the percentage of EV/PHEV relative to total car sales is rising in a more or less straight line.


And the rate of growth in world EV sales is extraordinary: 80% year on year in December.  At 80% per annum growth EVs/PHEVs will make up 8% of sales by the end of 2019 and 14% by the end of 2020.  Even at a 50% growth rate, EVs/PHEVs will make up 8% of total car/light truck sales by the end of 2020.  This is a serious market.  If you are a car manufacturer, and you're not there, you face imminent extinction.  Which guarantees that every car maker of note will be there.  Which in turn guarantees high sales growth (plus of course battery prices halving over the next 3 years and halving again over the subsequent 3).  On any reasonable growth assumption, EVs/PHEVs will be 75% of world car sales by the end of 2025.



[As ever, source of EV/PHEV data is Inside EVs; my seasonal adjustment and smoothing; my graphics program]