EVs cheaper than petrol cars by 2022

I've plotted BNEF's battery prices on a log scale.  Log scale is a better way to show rates of growth or rates of decline, because a straight line over time shows a constant rate of growth or decline, whereas the same data on an arithmetic scale will show an apparently steepening rate of ascent or slowing rate of decline.  The grey bars show BNEF's survey results, the red line shows estimates of Tesla's battery back costs as estimated by EV Obsession.

Couple of points to note:

1. The rate of decline in battery prices clearly increased from 2015 onwards.  If that rate of decline continues, the average battery pack cost will reach $100 in 2020 or 2021.  This is widely reckoned to be the tipping point where even cheap EVs will have a sticker price comparable petrol-driven cars (ICEVs)
2. Tesla's battery costs are lower than the industry's.   The 2019 estimate is derived by EV Obsession from the implied cost of the Tesla's semi price.
3. The cost of battery cells is less, but this is the cost of the whole pack.  I don't know, but the ratio of cell cost to pack cost may fall as the size of the pack increases.  

EV Obsession has this to say, in a most interesting article:

The bottom line is this: EVs will be better and cheaper than ICEVs at the value end of the biggest volume segments (small SUV and compact car) by 2022. At the higher-priced end of these segments EVs will already be at parity by 2019. By 2024–25 EVs will out compete on both features and price in pretty much every vehicle segment.

We know that in 2017 a premium sedan like the model S outsells its ICEV counterparts at a price which already gives enough margin to cover battery costs (of even a 330 mile range battery). But premium sedans are at most 2–3% of the global auto market. The real disruption will occur when EVs out-compete in the much higher volume ‘compact SUV’ and ‘compact car’ segments that make up at least 35% of the market.

By 2019 an EV C-segment vehicle costing $40,000 with a 55kWh battery pack (at $109/kWh) will reach sticker price parity with its ICEV counterparts. At the value-end, a $23,550 vehicle with a 55kWh battery pack (at $65/kWh) will be achieved by 2022.

[Read more here]

It's hard not to believe that by 2025 EV sales will dominate total car sales.  EVs are cheaper to run than, quieter than, faster than, handle better than, and are longer lasting than their ICEV counterparts.  With EV sticker prices equal to ICEV prices, these other factors will make EVs very attractive.  Meanwhile, city and national governments everywhere will be penalising ICEVs as they try to reduce air pollution.  When EVs will reach 90% or 95% or 100% of total vehicle sales I don't know, but it's surely going to be long before the consensus view of 2040 or 2050 or later.  

The plunge in battery prices also has very important implications for the role of renewables in electricity generation.  Even with 12 hours of storage, renewables are now cheaper than coal, and close to gas in the US (where gas is cheap).  As battery costs continue to decline  by 15% per annum, fossil fuels for electricity generation will be priced out of the market sooner rather than later.