Earlier this year I was concerned to see that the growth rate had slowed but it's obvious now that what happened was that growth was very high in late 2015, and so late 2016 growth was therefore lower. An annual growth rate of 50% means that sales will more than double over 2 years, and will rise 7.5 times over 5 years. EVs and PHEVs made up 1.8% of the world new car and light truck market in September, according to InsideEVs.com. If the growth rate continues, then that percentage will be 13.5% in 5 years, 100% in 10 years.
It's likely, though, that EV sales will grow more rapidly than 50% p.a. over the next few years, and more slowly after that. It's early days yet, but GM's Bolt sales are growing exponentially. Tesla is still going through "production hell" as it scales up output of the new Tesla 3. If Tesla meets its production targets for the Tesla 3, that by itself will be enough to raise world EV sales by 50%. The new Nissan Leaf isn't yet in showrooms, but will be widely available in 2018. It will cost less than a new Leaf with nearly double the range. It'll sell very well, I'm sure. Battery costs are continuing to decline. Other car makers are planning new EVs for 2019/2020. China (1/3rd of the world market) is introducing EV and PHEV quotas in 2019 (the date has slipped from 2018, but the 2019 quota remains unchanged at 10%.)
Everything points to an even more rapid acceleration of EV sales over the next 5 years. 60%? 70%? In 5 years, 20%+ of total car sales globally could be EVs/PHEVs. Up from 0.4% at the beginning of 2014!
BNEF estimates that oil demand will be reduced by 2 million barrels a day by 2023 at a 60% growth rate and 2025 at a 45% growth rate. At the moment, oil demand (for all purposes) is just under 100 million barrels a day. So 2 million barrels a day is only 2 per cent of total demand, which doesn't sound like a lot. Except that a similar shortfall in demand was enough to cause a two-thirds decline in the oil price in late 2014/2015. And it only gets worse: at 60% growth, demand is reduced by 8 million barrels a day by 2025. And other transport users of oil (aircraft/ships/heavy lorries) will also be starting to transition to electric motors or biofuel.
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| Source:BNEF |
It's terribly hard to be positive about the oil price, even given the likely peak in Chinese oil production in 2020. Although some oil is used to make plastics and chemicals including fertiliser, two thirds is used for transportation. By 2030, 100% of car and light truck sales will be electric, and most countries will have banned the sale of ICEVs.
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