Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Solar has doubled every 2 years for 30 years

I read somewhere a while ago that solar capacity has doubled every two years for 30 years, but stupidly, I didn't keep the link, and I haven't been able to find it again.  But I stumbled across a different site which showed a slightly lower growth since 1975, namely 30% per year.  To double every 2 years the growth rate would have to be 41% per year.  So, in the early years, when solar was so expensive, obviously growth was lower, because we know that since 1990 it has doubled every 2 years.  Currently solar provides about 1.2% of global electricity, which means it is just 6 doublings (or 12 years) away from providing 80% of all electricity.

It's a nice chart, but it would be better on a log scale, which works much better for exponential growth, or exponential decline (in module price) for that matter.


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