Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Solar has doubled every 2 years for 30 years

I read somewhere a while ago that solar capacity has doubled every two years for 30 years, but stupidly, I didn't keep the link, and I haven't been able to find it again.  But I stumbled across a different site which showed a slightly lower growth since 1975, namely 30% per year.  To double every 2 years the growth rate would have to be 41% per year.  So, in the early years, when solar was so expensive, obviously growth was lower, because we know that since 1990 it has doubled every 2 years.  Currently solar provides about 1.2% of global electricity, which means it is just 6 doublings (or 12 years) away from providing 80% of all electricity.

It's a nice chart, but it would be better on a log scale, which works much better for exponential growth, or exponential decline (in module price) for that matter.


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