Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. But I can't by law give you advice, and I do make mistakes. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. Oddly enough, the expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would, or on the other hand happens more quickly than you expected. The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Sunday, May 22, 2016

April another record

Yet another record month.  Global temperatures have now risen 1C above the 20th century average.  That increase has all happened in the last 40 years.

Source


The chart shows the 12 month average to April each year.  Note the obvious spike.  There were similar spikes in previous strong el niño years--1997, 1982.  But notice (a) that each major el niño is higher than the previous one and (b) even though temperatures fall for a couple of years after the el niño year, they soon get back to the same levels again.  In any case, what happens during an el niño is that heat already absorbed into the ocean is released into the atmosphere.  Most of the heat caused by the greenhouse effect of rising atmospheric CO2 has gone into the atmosphere.  During an el niño a small proportion of that is released into the atmosphere.  So saying the temperature spiked is caused by an el niño and that therefore we don't have to worry about it ("global temps are not rising") is wrong.  Note the strong uptrend since the late 1970s.  The el niños are just fluctuations around that trend.

Very depressing.  

To balance this, I'll have some good news in the next post.

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