Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

The oceans are warming

More than 90% of the heat accumulating on Earth from global warming has gone into the sea.  In years that the seas retain heat, the atmosphere warms less than the trend.  In other years, when the sea releases heat into the atmosphere it warms more.  That is what ENSO (El Niño/La Niña; averaging 9 or so years from peak to peak); the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation a 20-30 years cycle); and the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) cause--heat is transferred backwards and forwards from the sea to the air.  We are (as regards the atmosphere) in a cool PDO phase and also in a cool ENSO phase.  Global air temperatures would have been much higher if both cycles had been in a warm phase.

The climate change denialists point to the "pause" in the rise of global temperatures from 1998 onwards.  As it happens last year was the hottest ever measured, but never mind, now they're claiming the data are faked, of which more later.  But the heat has gone into the sea.  Which means that when it is released, even if just some of it, as will happen with an ENSO or the (inevitable) reversal of the PDO, global air temperatures will soar.  The "pause" such as it was, only applied to the air, which holds less than 7% of the increasing warmth of the earth.  Sea temperatures just went on rising, right off the top of the chart.

Oh, but the scientists are making up these numbers too, don't you know?  Cue tin-foil hats.

Read more here.  And there are a whole string of fascinating charts here.

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