Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Friday, July 18, 2014

US Growth Accelerating

Two of the earliest data points for the month are the Philadelphia Fed and the Empire State surveys.  They're now out for July.

The chart below shows a three month moving of the average for these two surveys compared with the 3 month percentage change in my US Coinciding Index.  (BTW, the slower patch in 2011, 2012 was caused by Federal budget balancing measures.)

Of course, this late in the cycle, strong growth brings a heightened risk of monetary tightening by the Fed.

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