Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

The perils of ill-advised austerity

Europe's real GDP, i.e., after adjusting for price rises, is still below the pre-GFC peak.  An astonishing achievement.  This assumes a small rise in QII (data not yet available), which may not happen given the state of PMIs across Europe.  IP (industrial production) across core Europe is slowing, GDP will surely follow.  7 years of blunder and failure.  A triumph.  Provisional PMI for July out tomorrow.  We'll see what that shows.


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