Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Friday, October 18, 2013

Philly Fed

Because of the shutdown, there are no "official" data releases about the latest economic conditions, although I suppose one could regard the Philadelphia Fed as official!

I've plotted it with a 3 month moving average (it's very "spiky" unadjusted), and this measure of it is well correlated with overall national economic activity.

So for what it's worth, it does look as if the economy is picking up, despite the political shenanigans.


  1. If the reports I've read are in any way accurate (and sadly, it's gotten to the point where almost any source might as well be some random blogger on the Internet -- present company excluded, of course -- the economy is booming (relatively speaking) and the deficit is at its lowest in about 50 years.

    Do not expect that to have any impact on the teabaggers.

    1. Well, there was a surplus under Clinton. (So much for Democrats being spendthrifts!) And there is a second round of sequestrated in the new year unless the kiddies agree, which they won't. But the economy does seem to be progressing despite the food-throwing in Washington.