Disclaimer

Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. I do make mistakes, but I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct. Remember: the unexpected sometimes happens. The expected does too, but all too often it takes longer than you thought it would.

The Goddess of Markets punishes (eventually) greed, folly, laziness and arrogance. No matter how many years you've served Her. Take care. Be humble. And don't blame me.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Monday, February 18, 2013

Treasuries selling off

T-Bond yields have bottomed, a major technical reversal.  The markets believe that eco recovery is safe, and that at some point the big buyer of bonds, the Fed, will (at best) stop buying.

Note succession of higher highs and lows, and death cross (since this is the yield, and the price falls as yield rises) where short-term MAV crosses the longer-term one.

Wouldn't be buying bonds now.

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