Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Chinese growth bottoming

The latest (provisional) HSBC PMI from China is perfectly consistent with growth bottoming.  Actual IP yoy has bottomed (the chart shows the data after extreme adjustment, which mostly just removes the blips caused by the peripatetic Chinese new year).  The rise in the PMI suggests more is to come.  (IP left hand scale, PMI right)

Friday, January 25, 2013

Is our market getting a bit toppy?

Close to previous (though not record) highs.  Overbought.  And results season coming up, which is likely to be a bit soggy.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Japan starts a genuine reflation

Finally.  The new govt in Japan is forcing the BoJ to target positive inflation.  The yen is (rightly) plumetting as a result.  And the wash of new money will force others to follow suit, or their currencies will rise against the yen.

The yen has made a MAJOR technical down break.