It seems now that growth has re accelerated in the US:
- The ISM data showed a rebound in September;
- The unemployment rate declined sharply. And no, that wasn't because Obama was manipulating the figures;
- Payrolls re-accelerated, and even more significant, the two previous months' data were revised up;
- Housing data continue to strengthen (starts, prices, sales) and the 30 year mortgage rate continues to slide.
- Now (yesterday's release), initial unemployment insurance claims have fallen sharply and unexpectedly. Could be dodgy seasonal adjustment (it's notoriously difficult to seasonally adjust weekly data); it could be just random wobbles. We'll see next week. There'll be a rebound, surely. The key will be how much.
[chart courtesy Econoday]