Disclaimer. After nearly 40 years managing money for some of the largest life offices and investment managers in the world, I think I have something to offer. These days I'm retired, and I can't by law give you advice. While I do make mistakes, I try hard to do my analysis thoroughly, and to make sure my data are correct (old habits die hard!) Also, don't ask me why I called it "Volewica". It's too late, now.

BTW, clicking on most charts will produce the original-sized, i.e., bigger version.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

New Highs

The S&P 500 closed at a new high (relative to the last few months) yesterday. As you can see from the chart this is a decisive breakout on the upside. Note also that the 150 day moving average has turned up, though the 45 day moving average has yet to cross above the longer-term moving average.

My judgment is that the uptrend has resumed, though because of huge individual and government debt throughout the developed world, the economic recovery will be sluggish, and the market will mirror that. On top of which, valuations simply aren't compelling. All the same, it is clearly better to be in than out. The weakness since mid-April is looking increasingly like a classic mid-cycle correction.

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